E&OE TRANSCRIPT 
PRESS CONFERENCE 
BLUE ROOM, CANBERRA 
THURSDAY, 28 NOVEMBER 2024

SUBJECTS: AFAC Seasonal Outlook for Summer 2024, National preparedness, Nature Positive reform, Senate, Senator Lidia Thorpe.

SENATOR JENNY McALLISTER, MINISTER FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT: Thanks everyone for being here. Today the Seasonal Outlook for Summer 2024 was released by the National Council for Fire and Emergency Services. That’s AFAC and that’s made up of fire and emergency chiefs from around the country. So our government has been working with all levels of government, state, local, industry and communities to prepare for the coming season. 

In the lead up to this season, the National Emergency Management Agency has conducted the largest ever preparedness program across the nation. We have directly engaged over 2500 people through information sessions and also through crisis scenario planning to get us ready for the season ahead. Now preparing and responding to disasters remains primarily a state and territory responsibility. But our government is investing in a range of capabilities that will provide more support to states and territories to respond to disasters. We've increased our investment in the National Aerial Fleet to approximately 48 million per year. And so, for the first time, states and territories will have access to three federally funded heavy lift and multi-use helicopters, in addition to the Large Air Tanker. We have invested in the National Stockpile. It includes resources that states and territories can use when they need. Things like emergency housing, large generators, water filtration equipment, water pumps and flood barriers. We're also investing in risk reduction through our Disaster Ready Fund to help communities better prepare for disasters. And Senator Sheldon will speak to you a little bit about that in a moment.

Now, the Outlook that is released today draws on the collective expertise and the on ground knowledge of our fire and emergency services right across Australia, as well as data from the Bureau of Meteorology. And it identifies an increased risk of fire in large parts of the country. It's really important to say this, it is not intended as a prediction, but it identifies areas of increased risk so that communities can prepare. And you'll see from the maps here that it differs a little bit from the Outlook that was released by AFAC for spring. And those changes, those differences are consistent with what we would ordinarily see, which is that as the rains come into the northern part of the country, the risk tends to move southward. There is an increased risk of fire in the south, on the Western Australian and southeastern coastline and Central West, and that extends to parts of South Australia's lower coastal south east region and the lower Eyre Peninsula. Further east, large areas of the south west and far west of Victoria, parts of the northeast and the Mornington Peninsula in South West Gippsland have an increased risk of fire, as do central northern and central southern NSW. And to the north, fire risk is increased in long unburnt areas in the southern half of the NT and that stretches north up to the north of the Berkeley Highway and to the Queensland border.

Now, Australians know of course that bushfire isn't the only thing that we've got to think about in the summertime. On the east coast, communities are preparing for a summer of severe storms and East Coast lows. Up north we can expect a higher than average chance of severe cyclones and we should all be prepared for the risk of heat waves, the largest killer of all of the natural hazards. And so my message to the community is that we can't eliminate these risks, but we can prepare for them.

Our government is focused on working with the states and the territories ahead of this season to do this. And there are many things that people in the community can do to prepare as well. And so the key messages to the community are this: understand the risk in your local area, have a plan and a kit, the things you'll take with you if you need to leave. And if you are a person with special needs or you care for a person with special needs, you need to think about those requirements when you're making your plan as well. And finally, please listen to authorities. Heed their advice. I will now pass to Senator Sheldon and then we'll have a chance to hear from Jo Buffone, the Deputy coordinator general from NEMA and Dr. Karl Braganza from the BOM.

SENATOR TONY SHELDON, SPECIAL ENVOY FOR DISASTER RECOVERY: Thanks very much, Jenny. And of course, we know, as we know, we're a country of natural hazards. And part of the preparedness for natural hazards before they become humanitarian challenges, whether it be for local community or individuals, is to have the funds, the resources and the engagement, and the Disaster Ready Fund is a $1 billion program to allocate $200 million a year to make sure that preparedness for resilience, community engagement and the opportunity to make sure that we build infrastructure, community capacity and doing it largely with local communities through our state and territories.

Now, this is a collaborative approach. That money, that $1 billion, $200 million a year, is supported by state and territory governments. And in this year, we're going to be seeing well over $360 million which will be spent on projects in the coming year. In the round two of the Disaster Ready Fund, we've seen projects like, which I visited, at Kununurra in the Kimberleys, new emergency and community centres there to be prepared for the coming seasons right through to the ACT, talking to workshops with linguistic diverse communities to make sure that your whole Australian community is aware and prepared for the coming season, and also projects right across the country. And you know, we've seen the Disaster Ready Fund both as part of the armoury of preparedness, of resilience, of community consultation and community capacity building.

So, we build the national programme with our states and territories. We have -- local government organisations and charities which account for about half the projects. And those projects cascade upwards within the frame that makes the country one more step closer to being more and more prepared for the coming season. We've seen projects such as preparedness for flood warnings systems to roll the way down to Albury, where we've put money into infrastructure projects such as the Albury -- preparedness there for all potential floods in Albury and the building up the system in that particular city. And those sorts of arrangements means that we have a system that is community based, state and territory cooperatively arranged but is a critical part of the armoury of making sure that we're prepared for the coming season. And also, it gives us that time to make sure that we're protecting, as a community, ourselves, our neighbours within that frame that gives us an opportunity to be best prepared for this coming season that we're facing. The unwavering commitment from the government is to make sure that this Disaster Ready Fund is an ongoing programme to build that community capacity. As part of that capacity building is also, of course, making the community fully aware of what the coming events are going to be. And with that, I'll hand you over to Joe to give some more detail.

JOE BUFFONE, NEMA DEPUTY COORDINATOR-GENERAL: Thanks, Senator. Thanks, Minister. I think the catch cry is ‘aware and prepared’. You've heard about from the Minister and from the Senator, having that awareness and being prepared. And what I'd like to do is introduce you to what we're actually doing about some of these risks that you're going to hear from the Bureau. You're going to hear about cyclones, you're going to hear about flooding, you're going to hear about severe weather, you're going to hear about heatwave, and in particular you're going to hear about the fire risk that's just been released by Australasian Fire Authorities Council. So, right now, nationally, we are better prepared than we have ever been. We are connected, we are coordinated, we are working very closely with states and territories who have primary responsibility, but we are also working very closely with the private sector, not-for-profits, to make sure, again, that they are aware of the risks and the challenges that we face as a nation and how we can actually work together. We've got great arrangements around sharing resources across jurisdictions, but also how we engage with the private sector so that they can contribute to any impacts, in particular, like supply chains. Some of the fire risk areas will have an impact on main supply routes, in particular, Western Australia. You heard from the Minister, the investment in aerial firefighting. The primary role is aerial firefighting. However, we're looking at multi-use so that it can support responses to cyclones, to floods, to severe weather. And in actual fact, right today, the national Large Air Tanker has been dispatched into Western Australia to support the fire effort over there.

You've heard from the Australasian Fire Authorities Council around the fire risk and we are working directly with the commissioners and chief officers to make sure that they are prepared. They are running extensive programmes at the jurisdictional level and at the local level to make sure that they are in place.

Now, not to be alarmist, but the key thing is that what we want to do is to make sure that communities are prepared and reinforcing the messages that the Minister just said. In particular, number one, have a plan, have your own plan, it doesn't have to be over-sophisticated. Just know what you're going to do when you get the warnings. The second thing is know the environment and the risk that you're in. In particular, if you are moving outside of your normal area, if you are going on holidays into sort of like the Grampians in Victoria or any areas in Australia, know whether you're in cyclone risk area, know whether you're in a flood area, know whether you're in a fire area. The other point is listen to local emergency services. They are the ones that know local conditions, what's going to occur and if I can just reinforce that:  they will send messages, they will send warnings, please do not ignore them. They are sending them for you to make decisions on your safety. And the other key point is around people with special needs or care or carers of people with special needs, just reinforcing there is additional planning that needs to occur for you to be safe and you may have to leave earlier or make other arrangements earlier if -- that's not -- depending on what the circumstances are. So, again, just reinforcing, please listen to those emergency warnings and that messaging and just reinforcing that we're preparing for the worst so that we can respond at our best. Thanks, Minister. And I'll now introduce Dr Karl Braganza.

DR KARL BRAGANZA, BUREAU OF METEREOLOGY: Thanks, Joe. So, Australia has entered its High Risk Weather Season and we will expect over the next four months to see tropical cyclones, bushfires, severe weather, floods in some part of the country. Looking at the Bureau's long range outlook, we're looking at increased odds of a wet December, particularly across most of the east and into the northwest of WA. We're also seeing evidence that we will see a warmer than average summer with a risk of extreme heat, particularly across the north, with warm oceans around Australia. It's likely to be quite sticky and humid at times and that is quite a big significant factor if you are vulnerable in some way, so, that's the elderly or those with medical conditions who are sensitive to extreme heat.

So that wet December will raise the risk of flooding this summer, particularly in the east. And it will also raise the possibility that the tropical cyclones that we will see will be more severe than those that we've seen in the past. Typically, Australia sees about four tropical cyclones make landfall over the High-Risk Weather Season and we're expecting a typical season in that regard. We should also just mention that fire is still an attendant risk in Australia. We are entering the summer period with some regions with low rainfall and soil moisture. We have seen some rain in recent days and are looking for a wet December. However, that does not mean that major fires will not follow in January and February, particularly if things dry out and we have seen that in the past. So, just to re-emphasise, Australia experience these hazards over summer and it is up to communities to really think about these events and prepare for them, particularly if you're in the relevant zone. Please check in with the Bureau's weather forecast, its warnings and its long-range forecast as well, which is updated every week because as we can see, conditions can change rather quickly depending on where you are. Thank you.

McALLISTER: Thanks, Karl. And I should say that, you know, we talk about above average risk or normal risk. No one should be complacent about a normal level of risk. In the Australian context, even a normal level of risk can still bring fire, it can still bring flood, it can still bring cyclone, it can still bring heatwave. We need to start thinking about the kinds of risks we're likely to be exposed to and preparing for them. Happy to take questions and the gentlemen are happy to take questions also.

JOURNALIST: Maybe a question for Joe as well as you Minister. Victoria looks like about half the state is red on this map. I know kind of the way you've done this forecast, it's either above average or normal risk. There's not really a spectrum there. What can you say about the potential severity of the fires? Are we looking at something as bad as Black Summer or is it not necessarily going to be that bad?

BUFFONE: Look, the advice that we have at the moment, what you see on the map looks at fuel loads, population density, the ability for, you know, the resources that are available in those areas. So, there's a range of factors that actually impact on it. The areas that are highlighted in Victoria in particular are, you know, relatively high risk. At this stage.it is unlikely- and I have to be cautious of this, right, because as you've heard from the Bureau, depending on, you know, if we get more rain, well, then the risk eases. But if we get continual heat over, you know, two or three weeks in January and February, well, then there is a risk of significant fires. But if you think about Black Summer, there was 3,000 kilometres of fire front on the East Coast. I think it's unlikely that we're going to experience something of that sort of significance. But locally and in those areas there is a risk of increased fire, as is highlighted there. The other thing though, in those areas, high shift in population for holiday makers. And that's a thing that we just want to again, call out, as I said, please, if you're moving into those areas, be aware of the risk. Enjoy the environment, but be aware.

JOURNALIST: Is it fair to characterise the risk, just looking at the maps as elevated grass fire risk in chief, or is it substantial forest fire risk anywhere as well?

BUFFONE: There's actually a mix in there, in the main it's generally the lighter fuels area, so grass and scrub fire in the main. However, in some areas there is still the risk of forest type fires.

JOURNALIST:  Where would that be? That would be important to highlight.

BUFFONE: Well, pretty much as you see in the Victorian areas in the main is probably those areas there.

McALLISTER: And I think in answer to both questions, I'd make this observation that the preparedness work that has been done between the Commonwealth and the states and territories looks very different to what it looked like five years ago.

BUFFONE: Absolutely.

McALLISTER: Two and a half thousand people engaged, one on one engagement with each of the jurisdictions by the National Emergency Management Agency. Regular meetings between Ministers discussing our preparedness. We met quite recently to talk about the season ahead, and a National Situation Room that is capable of coordinating a national response should things move beyond the capacity of an individual state or territory to manage it.

JOURNALIST: Just to pick you up on that, a lot of the red in the Northern Territory seems to be around quite remote indigenous communities, what work have you done with those communities in particular to really highlight the risk that they face this summer?

McALLISTER: I'll allow the Deputy Coordinator General to speak to that a little, but, you know, the Northern Territory takes responsibility for the primary interaction with communities about both preparedness and response. Our role is to make sure that we are in a position to coordinate a national response if the circumstances get beyond the control of any individual state and territory or beyond the resources and capacities of that state and territory. That's the purpose of much of the work that NEMA has been doing, making sure that everybody is on the same page, everyone has access to the same information and that we are well practised in working with one another. We're exercising and understanding what capabilities each of us will bring to the table in the event that a very serious incident occurs.

BUFFONE: Yes, there's a really good point in what you write. There's actually fires in that area as we speak, and we've actually worked directly with the Northern Territory government as we've highlighted. You know, states and territories have that responsibility. We've actually put a planning team up to work with them to highlight those areas. We've also done some other work around evacuation of remote indigenous communities. So, that if that's required. And that's a lot of learnings from last season, even though that was flood focused. But again, a lot of our remote indigenous communities were overrepresented. But reinforcing the point that every state and territory is doing very specific work to the risk that they're facing, the Victorian issue, they are doing a lot of work locally to make sure that they are prepared.

JOURNALIST: Minister, given the risk of heatwaves, is the government considering providing extra fuel support for people in those heatwave areas so that they can actually keep the air con on and stay safe over summer?

McALLISTER: I think you've seen this government bring intense focus to supporting families with cost of living, whether it's through the tax cuts, whether it's through supporting wage increases or indeed bill relief for both households and businesses to deal with costs associated with electricity. We'll always continue to look at what we can do to support communities. But right now around the country, families are receiving bills that, that are cheaper as a consequence of the bill relief that’s being provided.

JOURNALIST: But nothing specific for the summer period?

McALLISTER: We're working with communities to get good information about what they can do to stay cool. Sometimes that’s about modifications to an individual home. Sometimes it's about finding a place that you can go to stay cool. But you're quite right. It is a risk, and it's a matter that state and territories and the Commonwealth need to keep thinking about that, as we are likely to experience more and more hot days as the climate changes.

JOURNALIST: On the topic, how worried are you about the heatwaves, the conditions we're seeing in Sydney the last couple of days? Is that a sign of more to come over summer?

McALLISTER: Look, can I ask Dr Braganza to speak to the expectations? But I mean broadly, yes. We are expecting above average temperatures in large parts of the country.

BRAGANZA: Yeah. The long-range forecast shows that we are expecting high odds of warmer than average conditions over the summer. Typically, that raises the risk of heatwaves and impactful heatwaves as well. Probably one of the notable things in the forecast is the elevated overnight temperatures. That can have quite a large impact on health because you don't tend to cool off overnight. And that's particularly the case across the North. And I also called out just how warm the oceans are around Australia, which can increase the humidity. And we're sort of saying that already, in the last few days and, and weeks, actually. We're seeing some quite significant rainfall events. But even down in Melbourne, it's been significantly hotter than it would normally be. With those sorts of rainfall events.

JOURNALIST: Minister, question related to climate change specifically. Forgive me if I’m incorrect, but we appear to be in a season that is neither an El Nino nor a La Nina on the East Coast, and yet we still have quite significant risks of flood and fire. Is this the new normal that people need to be prepared for, as the climate continues to warm over the next, at least ten, fifteen years? Possibly longer? And does that present a different challenge when you don't have a predominant climatic driver in having to prepare for all manner of issues.

McALLISTER: I'd make this broad remark about the way we respond to this information. We are preparing for all contingencies. And so the work that we've been doing with the states and territories isn't focused on a particular hazard or risk. It's actually focused on being prepared for all of them because, as you've correctly observed, we can expect over the season to experience, you know, all of the above. We could have fires and cyclones and storms. And the big challenge that the Australian Government needs to be prepared for is the coordinating role that we need to play when those things are happening concurrently, because it on those occasions that our organisations at a state level find it hardest to respond. But I'll ask Doctor Braganza to provide some observations about the more technical aspects of your questions about how the weather works.

BRAGANZA: Yeah. So, we've had a La Nina event trying to get going this year. It hasn't quite got there. If it does get there in the next month or so, it will be a very weak and short lived event. Nevertheless, we've got high odds of, a wetter than average December, more typical summer rainfall in the next two months in January and February. But that situation with El Nino and La Nina particularly over the last couple of years has really emphasised that, yes, the climate is changing. We're less likely now to forecast the summer or even infer the summer based on our, kind of analogues of history, what we past experience during a El Nino and La Nina event, and we're very much going with the Bureau's dynamical model, which is an extension of the weather model run in long range mode. And so that's the primary guidance. It’s showing that you have these elevated odds for above average rainfall and elevated odds for extreme heat. There are trends going on in the background as well. And that's adding some predictability to system. So an earlier fire season. You can almost guarantee- well, not guarantee, but you can almost bet on having an earlier start to the fire season compared to last century.

And we're seeing that year after year, the fires kick off in late winter and spring. You're seeing when tropical cyclones do form, that one, they can be more intense by wind speed, but significant amounts of flooding, following it. And that is again a trend associated with climate change as the atmosphere warms, and as the ocean warms. When you get the right conditions for rainfall, it tends to be heavier in the past. So those are those attendant risks now, that we all need to just be mindful of.

McALLISTER: So I'll just go a couple up the back and come back to you, Mike.

JOURNALIST: Can we go to other topics or do you still want to get questions on weather?

McALLISTER: We’ll finish off on the weather.

JOURNALIST: Just one more question about the heatwaves. Has there been coordination with state and territory Primary Health or hospitals about increased presentations, people suffering heat stroke, that sort of thing.

McALLISTER: Joe, I might ask you to respond to that.

BUFFONE: Yeah. We've actually in line with, not only the outlook, but as part of the Summit, we've connected with the Department of Health. We've actually run targeted preparedness sessions with the whole health sector. We've also focused on aged care and, and peak bodies that, care for people with special needs, for that exact purpose, to make sure that they are prepared, they're ready for it. I mean, the whole principle here is like a cascading system that, you know, aware, everybody's aware of it, and then they put their systems in place to be prepared.

ENDS